The numbers: what actually happened to prices
Approximate price per carat for 1ct D VS1 Excellent cut — lab-grown vs natural, 2019 to 2025. Prices are indicative based on market reports.
| Year | Lab-grown 1ct D VS1 (approx.) | Natural 1ct D VS1 (approx.) | Lab:Natural ratio |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | $2,800–3,200 | $8,000–10,000 | ~35% |
| 2020 | $3,500–4,500 | $7,500–9,000 | ~45% |
| 2021 | $3,000–3,500 | $9,000–12,000 | ~32% |
| 2022 | $1,800–2,200 | $10,000–13,000 | ~18% |
| 2023 | $800–1,100 | $9,000–11,000 | ~9% |
| 2024 | $500–700 | $8,000–10,000 | ~6% |
| 2025 (est.) | $350–500 | $7,500–9,500 | ~5% |
Prices are approximate wholesale/retail averages based on industry reports from IDEX, Rapaport, and trade publications. Actual prices vary by specific stone characteristics, retailer, and market.
Why it happened: the economics of making diamonds
To understand the price collapse, you need to understand the economics of growing a diamond in a CVD reactor.
A CVD diamond grows in a reactor. The main costs are: the reactor itself (capital cost, amortised over its useful life), electricity (CVD is extremely energy-intensive), gas (methane and hydrogen), diamond seed plates, and labour. Every improvement in reactor efficiency, electricity cost, or yield directly reduces the cost per carat of finished rough.
In 2018, the cost of growing one carat of gem-quality CVD rough in a commercial reactor was approximately $300 to $400 in an efficient facility. By 2023, improvements in reactor design, growing conditions, and sheer scale of production had reduced that to approximately $50 to $150 per carat in the most efficient operations. The cost of the finished polished stone is that growing cost plus cutting, polishing, certification, and margin — but the floor price is constrained by production cost, and production cost fell by 60 to 80 percent in five years.
When the cost of producing something falls that dramatically, retail prices must follow eventually. The only question is how long premium pricing can be maintained above production cost — and in a competitive market with many producers, not very long.
The China factor: the single biggest driver
The price collapse was not distributed evenly across the world. It was driven overwhelmingly by one country: China, and specifically by producers in Henan Province.
Chinese diamond production had been significant since the 1960s for industrial diamond — abrasives, drill bits, cutting tools. When the gem-quality CVD market began to develop around 2015 to 2018, Chinese manufacturers applied the same industrial logic they had used for industrial diamond: build as much capacity as possible, drive down costs through scale, capture market share with lower prices.
The number of CVD reactors in China grew from an estimated few hundred in 2018 to several thousand by 2022. Each reactor produces approximately 10 to 30 carats of rough per month depending on size and conditions. The arithmetic is significant: a Chinese province with 3,000 reactors, each producing 20 carats per month, adds 720,000 carats of CVD rough annually to the market. Global natural diamond production is approximately 115 million carats per year in total — but gem-quality natural diamonds represent only 20 to 25 percent of that. The scale of Chinese CVD production relative to gem-quality natural supply is significant and growing.
Chinese producers do not operate at the premium end of the market. Their product is typically in the G-J colour range, SI to VS clarity, sold as commercial gem rough at low margins. The sheer volume of this supply, sold at progressively lower prices, pulled the entire market down with it.
The Lightbox effect: De Beers deliberately accelerated the collapse
In 2018, De Beers — the company that had spent years opposing and dismissing lab-grown diamonds — launched Lightbox, a lab-grown diamond jewellery brand. The pricing was deliberate and strategic: $800 per carat, regardless of colour or clarity. A 1ct D VS1 and a 1ct J SI2 both cost $800 per carat at Lightbox.
The message was explicit. De Beers' CEO at the time was clear in interviews: the company believed lab-grown diamonds were fashion accessories worth approximately $800 per carat, not luxury goods deserving premium pricing. By entering the market at this price point, De Beers was attempting to establish a price ceiling for lab-grown — a signal to consumers that lab-grown diamonds were not worth the $3,000 to $4,000 that other retailers were charging.
Whether the strategy worked as intended is debatable. Lab-grown prices did fall below Lightbox's $800 anchor price within a few years, suggesting Chinese producers were happy to go even lower. But De Beers' entry at $800 almost certainly accelerated consumer expectation that lab-grown prices should be dramatically lower than natural — a perception that made it harder for other retailers to maintain premium pricing.
In 2023, Lightbox cut its prices further to $500 per carat, following the market down. The brand continues to operate and has been expanding its retail presence in the US and international markets.
Who was hurt by the price collapse
The collapse was not painless. Several groups took significant financial hits.
Retailers and jewellers who bought early inventory
Jewellers who stocked lab-grown diamonds at 2020 or 2021 prices found themselves holding inventory at a fraction of its cost. A retailer who paid $3,500 for a 1ct lab-grown in 2021 and tried to sell it in 2023 was competing with new stock at $900. Some retailers took significant write-downs. Others stopped carrying lab-grown entirely — at least temporarily — until prices stabilised.
Consumers who bought lab-grown at peak prices
People who bought lab-grown engagement rings in 2020 and 2021, when the price premium over natural was relatively small, paid significantly more than the same stone would cost today. A 1ct lab-grown ring bought for $4,500 in 2021 has a replacement value of approximately $800 to $1,200 in 2025. The stone is unchanged. The market around it changed completely.
Natural diamond retailers and miners
Natural diamond prices were also affected. Consumer confusion between natural and lab-grown, and growing consumer preference for lab-grown due to the price gap, suppressed natural diamond demand, particularly at the lower end of the market where 0.30ct to 0.70ct stones compete directly with lab-grown alternatives. Major miners including De Beers and Alrosa reported lower revenues and profit margins through 2023 and 2024 partly as a result of this demand shift.
Lab-grown producers who expanded at peak prices
Some lab-grown producers who invested heavily in capacity at 2021 prices found their revenue per carat falling faster than their cost reductions. Companies that took on significant debt to expand production faced financial pressure. The lab-grown supply chain has seen consolidation, with some smaller producers exiting the market.
Impact on natural diamonds: less than expected
Many analysts expected the lab-grown price collapse to devastate natural diamond prices. The actual outcome has been more nuanced.
Natural diamond prices did fall — approximately 15 to 25 percent between 2022 and 2025 across most categories. But the market has not collapsed as some predicted. Several factors have provided support.
Consumer segmentation has clarified. Buyers who want the largest possible stone for their budget choose lab-grown. Buyers who want rarity, geological history, and resale value choose natural. Rather than lab-grown replacing natural, the market has split into two distinct segments with different value propositions.
The natural diamond market has also benefited from constrained supply. New kimberlite pipe discoveries have been declining for decades. Several major mines — including Argyle (the world's primary source of pink diamonds) and some Canadian operations — have reached end of life. Supply is genuinely tightening over the medium term, which provides a floor for natural prices that lab-grown cannot replicate.
If you already own a lab-grown diamond: what this means for you
If you bought a lab-grown diamond before 2022, this section is for you.
Your diamond is real. It has not changed. It is as hard, as brilliant, and as durable as the day you bought it. Nothing about the price collapse affects the physical quality of your stone.
What has changed is the monetary value relative to what you paid. A 1ct lab-grown diamond bought in 2021 for $4,000 is probably worth $500 to $800 in resale today. This is a paper loss — it only becomes a real loss if you try to sell. Many people never sell an engagement ring. For those who bought lab-grown to wear and enjoy, the price decline is essentially irrelevant to their daily experience of the stone.
If you are considering selling or upgrading, realistic expectations are necessary. You will not recover original purchase price. Consignment through a jeweller or auction (for higher-quality certified stones) is likely to yield more than direct trade-in. Some retailers with upgrade programmes will take lab-grown trade-ins as partial credit — ask explicitly about the terms before assuming this applies.
Where prices go next: honest projections
Nobody can predict diamond prices with certainty. What follows is an honest assessment of the factors at play.
The case for continued decline
The cost of growing a CVD diamond continues to fall as technology improves and reactor efficiency increases. Chinese producers are still adding capacity. There is no obvious supply constraint equivalent to the geological rarity of natural diamonds. The floor for lab-grown prices is the marginal cost of production, and that floor continues to move lower. Some analysts suggest the long-run equilibrium price for lab-grown diamonds is $50 to $200 per carat finished polished — approaching the economics of other mass-produced synthetic gemstones like moissanite.
The case for stabilisation
Some segments of the lab-grown market may stabilise or bifurcate. Premium producers — those growing at the highest quality standards, under renewable energy, with brand investment — may maintain a price premium over commodity production. The market could develop similarly to how the cultured pearl market settled, with a premium tier for the best producers and a commodity tier for volume production.
What is almost certainly not going to happen
A recovery to 2020 or 2021 prices is not credible. The production cost improvements that drove prices down are structural — they cannot be undone. A 1ct lab-grown diamond that costs $100 to $150 to grow cannot sustainably retail at $4,000. The only scenario that would support a significant price recovery is a dramatic reduction in supply, which would require many producers to exit the market simultaneously — possible but not the likely outcome given continued demand growth.
The price collapse and India's lab-grown industry
India's lab-grown diamond industry has been caught in the same dynamics as the global market, but with a specific twist: India is both a producer and a major processing centre, which means the collapse has hit both the upstream and downstream sides of the business.
Surat's cutting factories that process lab-grown rough have seen their margins squeezed as rough prices fell faster than labour and operating costs. A factory that paid $400 per carat for rough in 2021 and sold polished at $900 per carat had a different margin profile than one buying rough at $80 per carat and selling polished at $200. The absolute margin per carat has compressed significantly.
Indian lab-grown diamond exports fell from a peak of over $2.3 billion in FY2023 to approximately $1.8 billion in FY2024, reflecting both lower prices and some volume adjustment. The US market — the primary buyer of Indian lab-grown — saw consumer demand shift as buyers adjusted to the new lower price points.
The positive side for India: lower prices have expanded the accessible market. A 1ct lab-grown engagement ring that cost $5,000 in 2021 can be purchased for $1,000 to $1,500 in 2025 — bringing it within reach of buyers who could not previously afford it. Total volume demand in carats has grown even as revenue per carat has fallen.
Frequently asked questions
Will lab-grown diamond prices ever recover?
No significant recovery to pre-2022 levels is expected. The production cost improvements that drove prices down are permanent — they reflect genuine technological advancement and scale efficiency, not a temporary imbalance. The long-term direction for lab-grown prices is sideways to lower, barring an unexpected supply disruption or significant consolidation among producers.
Should I wait for prices to fall further before buying lab-grown?
The risk of waiting is that prices may have already reached a level close to the production cost floor for most commercial-quality goods. The incremental savings from waiting six or twelve months may be smaller than the opportunity cost of not having the stone. For premium-quality certified goods from reputable producers, prices are less likely to fall dramatically from current levels than they were from 2021 prices. That said, nobody can guarantee prices will not fall further.
Does the price collapse mean lab-grown diamonds are bad quality?
No. The quality of lab-grown diamonds has not changed. A D VS1 Excellent cut CVD diamond in 2025 is chemically and optically identical to a D VS1 Excellent cut CVD diamond in 2020. What changed is the cost of making it. Price and quality are different things — the price of flat-screen televisions has fallen 90 percent since 2005 without any decline in picture quality. The same principle applies.